Leading Through Uncertainty: Why Some Leaders Struggle and Others Make It Look Simple
By Erin Keen and Zeljko Nikolic
Two leaders. Different organisations. Same challenge. Both faced large-scale transformation. Both had pressure to deliver. One built momentum and clarity. The other fuelled confusion and drift. What made the difference?
Uncertainty doesn’t create problems. It reveals them. It shows us how people lead when the map runs out.
At Lilyfield Partners, we work alongside our clients to turn complexity and uncertainty into a better tomorrow. Whether the context is sector-wide reform or digital transformation, we’ve observed that effective leadership in uncertainty is shaped less by conditions and more by choices.
This article explores what sets effective leaders apart in uncertainty, drawing on stories from the field, insights from practice, and perspectives grounded in current leadership research.
The Nature of Uncertainty
Uncertainty doesn’t just make planning harder. It changes how people think, decide and behave.
Cognitive science shows that under pressure, people often:
Default to habits, even when those habits are unhelpful
Seek control or clarity too early
Struggle to process nuance or hold competing views
Research suggests this is particularly true in VUCA environments: those defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. While often treated as a catch-all, each element demands a different response. Adaptability in the face of volatility. Experimentation under ambiguity. Information-gathering when uncertain. Structural support in complexity (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014).
But effective leadership isn’t just about understanding the environment. It’s about developing new habits of mind. As Fletcher, Gaines and Loney (2023) argue, the best leaders in uncertainty shift away from control-seeking and instead practise low-data decision making, active questioning and emotional agility. These behaviours can be developed intentionally, not just admired from afar.
Patterns We See in the Field
When Confidence Quietly Collapses: Leader A
In one organisation, a senior leader was tasked with guiding their division through a major overhaul. The transformation promised to simplify operations and modernise delivery. It also required a shift in how leaders led. This leader didn’t resist outright. Instead, they quietly stepped back.
They missed key meetings, spoke supportively in public but disengaged in private. They delegated decisions without direction and gave mixed signals, neither opposing the change nor championing it. Their visible stance differed from their behind-the-scenes behaviour. Over time, this passive leadership became quietly corrosive.
Without alignment, the team splintered. People made disconnected calls or waited for guidance that never came. Frustration grew. Some picked up the slack. Others quietly let it drop.
Momentum stalled. Delivery timelines slipped. The change had to be re-scoped and re-sequenced. Trust eroded, not just in the leader but in the transformation itself.
When Leadership Creates Lift: Leader B
In a different organisation, facing a similarly complex transformation, another leader took a different approach.
They didn’t pretend to have all the answers but made their commitment clear from the outset. They stayed close to their team, showed up consistently and asked the right questions, especially the uncomfortable ones.
They created space for honest dialogue, named tensions early and helped people make sense of a shifting landscape. When clarity was thin, they were transparent about what was known, what wasn’t and what was coming. Their tone was calm. Their decisions, grounded.
Because they remained engaged and visible, the team aligned quickly. People felt safe to experiment and adjust, knowing they had cover. Problems surfaced early and were solved together.
That team delivered. Capability lifted. People stayed engaged. Not because the path was easy, but because someone helped make it navigable.
A Practical Point of View on Leading Through Uncertainty
Uncertainty doesn’t call for control. It calls for clarity.
Too often we meet leaders who feel they must resolve uncertainty before they can act. But inaction only fuels drift. The most effective leaders don’t wait for certainty to emerge. They help shape it.
Here’s how.
Clarify what’s real
Cut through the noise
Focus on what’s observable, in data, behaviours and outcomes
Name the hard truths others avoid
“We may not control the pace of change, but we can control how we move through it together.”
Align people around what matters
Clarity without connection doesn’t stick
Create shared language and direction, even if the path shifts
Help people see where their focus matters most
“Let’s work with what we know, not what we wish we knew.”
Act with purpose and adaptability
Progress beats perfection in complexity
Mobilise with just enough structure to move
Reflect, adjust and protect momentum by recognising useful steps
“Keep moving, keep learning and we’ll make it clearer as we go.”
These behaviours align with research from Zucker and Rowell (2021), who describe six strategies that help leaders shift from being overwhelmed by complexity to learning through it. Letting go of perfectionism, resisting premature conclusions and intentionally seeking broader perspective all contribute to building a more resilient leadership mindset.
This isn’t just instinct. It is a discipline that can be learned, practised and embedded. Effective leadership in uncertainty requires deliberate habits - not just the ability to react, but the ability to refocus, reframe and adapt.
What Effective Leaders Do in Uncertainty
When uncertainty rises, people look for clarity, not control. Here's what we consistently see strong leaders do and where others often go wrong.
| Situation | Unhelpful Response | Effective Response |
|---|---|---|
| Signals are mixed | Wait for clarity from above | Test assumptions with the team |
| Pressure is mounting | Fill the space with decisions | Clarify what matters and hold focus |
| Teams are unsettled | Reassure vaguely or avoid | Acknowledge discomfort and share what’s known vs unknown |
| Complexity is rising | Delegate it away | Stay close to the work and lead through ambiguity |
| Momentum is stalling | Blame the plan or the people | Reset priorities and take a forward step |
| Uncertainty is sustained | Try to “land” the change too early | Mobilise around learning, not perfection |
Leadership in uncertainty doesn’t hinge on having the answers. It shows up in what you do when no one does.
Two leaders. Two organisations. Same complexity.
One drifted, caught between ambiguity and inaction.
The other leaned in, not with bravado, but with presence, clarity and commitment.
One created confusion. The other created momentum.
Uncertainty doesn’t call for false certainty. It calls for clarity. For grounded action. For the ability to bring others with you, even when the path isn’t obvious.
The best leaders don’t simplify the challenge. They simplify the work of facing it.
In moments of uncertainty, leadership is rarely about having the right answers. It’s about creating the conditions for others to move with clarity and purpose. The leaders who do this well don’t wait for certainty. They build the capability to act through it.
Endnotes
Angus Fletcher, Thomas L. Gaines and Brittany Loney. How to Be a Better Leader Amid Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Harvard Business Review, 2023.
Nathan Bennett and G. James Lemoine. What VUCA Really Means for You. Harvard Business Review, 2014.
Rebecca Zucker and Darin Rowell. Six Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 2021.
At Lilyfield Partners, we partner with clients to deliver change that turns complexity and uncertainty into a better tomorrow. Because strategy only matters if it gets delivered. And problems aren’t solved until people move.